SCIENCE
But if you flip a coin three times and get tails all three times, there is a temptation to feel that a heads outcome is more likely on the fourth flip. Similarly a mom who has given birth to three sons is likely to feel the chances are that a daughter is next.
But not so. With the coin and the childbirth, the fourth occurrence is still 50-50. What is not 50-50 is the likelihood of flipping four tails in succession. That probability is one in sixteen, about 6 percent.
What are your chances of living to be 90? You would probably say remote, but not if you're 89. At that point, they're really quite good.
If you agree with the proposition that the more time you spent flying in an airplane, the more likely you are to die in an airplane crash, then what should you do if, upon boarding an airliner, you discover all of the other passengers are sporting frequent flyer pins? Should you be nervous? Should you take a later flight?
A pair of identical cubes with spots of 1 through 6 on them qualifies as a pair of dice. Why is the 7 result so special in a game of craps? When the dice are cast, there are 36 possible outcomes. If the first cube comes up a 1, there are six possibilities for the second. If it's a 2, six more possibilities, and so 36 in all. Can you calculate the likelihood of a 7 result at each toss?
And suppose we agree to multiply the two faces. Smallest outcome would be a 1, the largest 36. And what are the lucky numbers here? Odds are you'll find two which tie for first.
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