WXXI Local Stories
(2008-10-08)
null
The Siena College poll, which surveyed four more key Senate races, found just one incumbent, a Democrat, Senator William Stachowski of Buffalo, is in danger of losing his seat.
The Senate currently has 31 Republicans, 30 Democrats, and one open seat, so the changeover of just one or two seats from Republican to Democrat could make the difference of which party controls that house.
While much of the political speculation in recent months has focused on Republican incumbents thought to be in trouble, the Siena poll finds that two GOP Senators, James Alesi of Rochester, and Dale Volker of Buffalo, have comfortable leads against their Democratic opponents. Alesi leads Democrat David Nachbar by 62% to 21% , while Volker is ahead of Democrat Kathy Konst at 50% to 33%.
Siena also found that Westchester Senator Suzi Oppenheimer, a Democrat that Republicans have claimed is vulnerable, is actually ahead of her GOP opponent by a wide margin of more than 35 points. Oppenheimer leads Republican Liz Feld by 61% to 24%.
But the poll found that Senator Stachowski, is 13 points behind his Republican opponent, Dennis Delano, a popular ex- police detective, at 49% for Delano to 36% for Stachowski. Siena spokesman Steve Greenberg says Delano is "far more well known and far more liked" than the incumbent.
Voters in Stachowski's district also voiced more support for Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama than Republican John McCain, and the Majority said they wanted Democrats to take charge of the Senate.
Greenberg says the numbers show that state legislative races are more about "the personalities of the candidates and local issues" than about national topics and party affiliations.
The number one issue of concern to voters in three of the four Senate districts was high property taxes.
The poll results, combined with the numbers on six Senate races surveyed a couple of weeks ago, shows that the fight for control of the Senate is still extremely close. The only other incumbent Senator who might be vulnerable is Republican Senator Serph Maltese of Queens, who was found to be in a dead heat with his challenger Democrat Joseph Addabbo. The contest to fill the Buffalo area Senate seat left open by the retiring Mary Lou Rath was also too close to call, and could as likely be taken by Democrats as Republicans.
There is a new factor in the Senate races that could make a difference in the outcome. Governor David Paterson, who at first remained rather neutral on whether his own Democratic Party should take over the Senate, has stepped up his rhetoric and actions in recent weeks.
Paterson in his first months in office, worked to mend severed relations between his predecessor Eliot Spitzer and Senate Republicans. But beginning in August, at the Democratic convention in Denver, Paterson began publicly advocating for change in party leadership in the Senate, and predicted that Democrats would win control of the chamber. He has also been raising money for Democratic candidates.
Paterson, shortly before announcing a bi-partisan agreement on a new microchip factory, seemed to try to play down any bias he might have toward members of his own party.
"As governor I will work with whoever wins," said Paterson, who is facing a huge budget deficit and will need the cooperation of legislators from both major parties. But the governor says, as a Democrat, he's "proud to support Democrats".
Meanwhile, Greenberg, with Siena College polling, says the fight for control of the Senate will go down to the wire.
"It's clear that we're not going to know who controls the State Senate come January, until the morning of Wednesday November 5th at the earliest. , Greenberg said.
Senate races in New York have been known to take much longer than that, weeks and even months, before the winners and losers are finally named.
© Copyright 2010, WXXI
