KPLU Local News
(2010-02-08)
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Flickr photo from Craig Damlo
The first flight of the 747-8 has obvious psychological significance, says aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia.
"Because it comes right on the tails of the 787 first flight and progress on that front. So, it shows that the company is building momentum and getting back in the game after a couple of serious setbacks."
Because of the delays, the 747-8 is costing Boeing nearly one and a half billion dollars more than originally forecast - costs the company has already written off. Many analysts believe it will never make a profit. Even if it corners the market for cargo planes of its size, it caters to a niche for large aircraft that will never generate many sales. But Aboulafia says it plays a strategic role in the market. The passenger version of the plane competes with Airbus's A-380 jumbo jet, which is that jet-maker's main source of income as it gets ready to launch a competitor to Boeing's most important product right now, the Dreamliner.
"This is effectively a chess game. As a 747/A-380 battle, it's not terribly compelling, the market just isn't that big. But, if it hurts Airbus and keeps it from generating the cash it needs to bring the A-350 to market, then it's served a very valuable role."
The market for mid-sized aircraft is about six times that of large planes - so Aboulafia says, even if the 747-8 just breaks even, if it can help stave off the competition for Boeing's Dreamliner, it will have done good work for the company.
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