Swine Flu Vaccine Could Be Major Help, If It Were Ready SEATTLE, WA (KPLU) -

The vaccine against the H1N1 (swine) flu could virtually stop the epidemic in its tracks, if it were ready in time. That's according to a new study by Seattle researchers. But it's likely the first wave of illness will sweep through schools before vaccine shipments arrive later in October.

Researchers at the Fred Hutchinson Center have a good-news, bad-news story to tell. In the most detailed study yet, published this week in Science Express, they've shown that giving a pandemic flu vaccine to 70% of the public, starting with schoolchildren, could slow the virus to a crawl. The problem: the virus is spreading faster than anyone can manufacture and safety-test the vaccine. Epidemiologist Ira Longini says the flu virus is behaving a lot like the pandemic of 1957. That year, the virus surfaced in the spring, and then returned with a vengeance as soon as school started in the fall. He says this year, it's likely to peak in mid-October - just as the first shipments of vaccine arrive:

"It means we will be a little bit late with the vaccine," says Longini. "We estimate one should start vaccinating, especially children, about a month before the peak. So theoretically it would be best, given the potential scenario we are facing, to start about now, actually."

The vaccine will still protect anyone who hasn't yet gotten sick, and there's a good chance there'll be a second wave of sickness during the winter. In the meantime, there's only so much we can do to protect ourselves. Use good hygiene, and take the illness seriously when it does hit. On the other hand, most people so far, including hundreds at Washington State University in Pullman, are finding the illness is no worse than ordinary flu.

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